Image Credit: Alex Nabaum
By Jason Zweig | Nov. 9, 2018 11:49 a.m. ET
In late October, as the stock market was floundering, brash emails started to appear in my inbox.
With the subject line “Stock Exchange predictions for tomorrow and next trading week,” the messages said they contained forecasts “generated by 7,445 adaptive machine intelligence models…that predict stock movements one day and one week in advance” at an average accuracy of 72.45%.
Human intelligence usually fails to predict where stocks are headed in the short term, so I decided to see whether artificial intelligence is better at it. I used the most basic guidelines I know, from the chapter “How to Talk Back to a Statistic” in Darrell Huff’s classic 1954 book, How to Lie with Statistics.…
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For further reading:
Darrell Huff, How to Lie with Statistics
Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor
Jason Zweig, The Devil’s Financial Dictionary
Jason Zweig, Your Money and Your Brain
Jason Zweig, The Little Book of Safe Money
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