Posted by on Nov 12, 2018 in Articles & Advice, Blog, Columns, Featured |

Image Credit: Alex Nabaum

By Jason Zweig | Nov. 9, 2018 11:49 a.m. ET


In late October, as the stock market was floundering, brash emails started to appear in my inbox.

With the subject line “Stock Exchange predictions for tomorrow and next trading week,” the messages said they contained forecasts “generated by 7,445 adaptive machine intelligence models…that predict stock movements one day and one week in advance” at an average accuracy of 72.45%.

Human intelligence usually fails to predict where stocks are headed in the short term, so I decided to see whether artificial intelligence is better at it. I used the most basic guidelines I know, from the chapter “How to Talk Back to a Statistic” in Darrell Huff’s classic 1954 book, How to Lie with Statistics.



To read the rest of the column:

For further reading:


Darrell Huff, How to Lie with Statistics

Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

Jason Zweig, The Devil’s Financial Dictionary

Jason Zweig, Your Money and Your Brain

Jason Zweig, The Little Book of Safe Money

Articles and other research:

The Problem With Financial Oracles

The Trouble with Timing

You Can Time The Market, Just Not All The Time

A 117% Gain in a Year? Why, That’s Nothin’!

Fat Tails, Thin Ice